Election Forecast

Explore the dynamics of the Canadian federal election landscape through a predictive statistical model and interactive visualizations. Using historical election data, polling trends, and socio-political factors, the bayesian model forecasts potential outcomes for federal ridings across Canada. Visualizations bring these forecasts to life, with dynamic, interactive maps and charts that allow you to explore seat distributions, regional trends, and evolving voter patterns in real-time.

Explore online

Built with

  • Python
  • React
  • TypeScript
  • D3.js
The main page offers a seamless toggle between views, allowing you to explore the projected popular vote share, seat count, and the chance of winning for Canada’s major political parties. An interactive map visually enhances the experience, providing a clear, region-by-region breakdown of each party’s forecasted performance across the country.
Switch between three charts displaying the projected popular vote share, seat count, and each party’s chance of winning, offering a quick, clear view of the election forecast for easy tracking of party performance.
Adjust sliders to input custom estimates for each party's projected vote share. As you modify the values, the system dynamically updates a graph displaying the corresponding seat distribution and potential government formation based on your inputs.
Dynamic SVG-based illustrations update in real-time to clearly visualize the path to 343 seats. They aim to simplify the complexities of the election process, making it easier to understand how seat counts build up toward a majority government.
Hovering over provinces or electoral factors highlights which regions the model identifies as having correlated voting patterns, offering insights into how different areas of Canada may influence each other’s electoral outcomes.
This interactive pie chart graph illustrates the disparity between a party's vote share and their expected seat count across different election years, compared to the actual seat count under the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) system, providing a clear view of how the system impacts election results.